Journal of International Trade, 2023, Issue 2

Authors: LYU Yue, DENG Lijing

Abstract: Improving the resilience and security of the industrial chains and supply chains has become a key step in promoting China’s high-quality development in the new development stage. This paper focuses on the automobile industrial chain, and constructs the industrial chain security index using the customs data of HS 6-digits products imported by Chinese provinces from various countries from January 2017 to December 2021. We accurately assess the security of China’s automobile industrial chain, and analyze the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the security of China’s automobile industrial chain by adopting the difference-in-differences method, so as to provide practical suggestions for ensuring the resilience and security of the automobile industrial chain and supply chain. The findings show: first, overall, China’s automobile industrial chain is dependent on imported inter-mediates and tends to be concentrated, and the risk of the industrial chain is on the rise. The risk of midstream is relatively significant, with more pronounced dynamic instability features. Second, from the perspective of provinces, the scale effect of intermediate imports is obvious, that is, the larger the import scale of each province, the higher the security of the automobile industrial chain. Third, from the perspective of countries the import risks from resource-based countries (regions) and countries (regions) with developed electronic industry are relatively significant, and China’s imports from seven economies including Australia confront a large import scale and a high risk of industrial chain. Fourth, from the perspective of industrial chain segmentation, the risks of industrial chain faced by upstream mold manufacturing, photovoltaic equipment and midstream automobile manufacturing are higher. Fifth, the outbreak of COVID-19 significantly reduces the security of China’s automobile industrial chain. The expansion of foreign direct investment, the integration of domestic markets and the promotion of innovation aid in resisting the negative impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the security of the industrial chain. 

Keywords: Resilience and Security; Automobile Industrial Chain; High-quality Development; COVID-19 Pandemic