After several decades of increasing global economic integration, the world is facing the risk of policy-driven geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF). This note explores the ramifications. It identifies multiple channels through which the benefits of globalization were earlier transmitted, and along which, conversely, the costs of GEF are likely to fall, including trade, migration, capital flows, technology diffusion and the provision of global public goods. It explores the consequences of GEF for the international monetary system and the global financial safety net. Finally, it suggests a pragmatic path forward for preserving the benefits of global integration and multilateralism.

经过数十年的全球经济一体化进程，世界正面临由政策驱动的地缘经济碎片化（GEF）风险。本报告探讨了这一现象的影响，指出了全球化带来收益的多种传导渠道，以及相反的，地缘经济碎片化可能带来的成本，包括贸易、移民、资本流动、技术扩散以及全球公共产品的提供。文章还探讨了地缘经济碎片化对国际货币体系和全球金融安全网的影响。最后，它提出了一条务实的前进道路，以保留全球一体化和多边主义带来的收益。