From the recent release of multiple sets of macroeconomic data, it can be seen that there is a clear logic of China's economic recovery and improvement, demonstrating the confidence of China's stable and positive economy.

Market demand is stable but on the rise

The current endogenous driving force of the Chinese economy continues to recover. From the production side, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on June 17 shows that in May, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 5.6% year-on-year, with 90% of regions, 80% of industries, and nearly 60% of products achieving year-on-year growth; The national service industry production index increased by 4.8% year-on-year, 1.3 percentage points faster than in April.

Under the joint action of various policies, market demand has steadily increased. On the consumer side, the total retail sales of consumer goods in May reached 3.92 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, which is 1.4 percentage points faster than April; On the investment side, in the first five months, the national fixed assets investment (excluding farmers) was 18.80 trillion yuan, up 4% year on year. Among them, investment in manufacturing and high-tech industries increased by 9.6% and 11.5% respectively.

From the perspective of external demand, since the beginning of this year, China's foreign trade has embarked on a steady "rebound curve". In May, the total import and export volume of goods in China increased by 8.6% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to April. In the first five months, the total import and export volume of goods in China reached a historical high of 17.50 trillion yuan.

Professor Lyu Yue from the National Institute of Open Trade at the University of International Business and Economics told Securities Daily reporters that the trend of digitalization and green low-carbon transformation in foreign trade is significant, and the export scale of high-end, intelligent, and green products continues to expand. China's trade structure continues to optimize, and new advantages in foreign trade are accelerating.

From the perspective of consumption capacity, the job market has remained stable since May, providing a foundation for the recovery of consumption. In May, the unemployment rate of the national urban survey was 5.0%, the same as that of April, and the unemployment rate of the migrant agricultural registered residence population was 4.5%. In the first quarter, residents' income increased by 6.2% in nominal terms compared to the same period last year, faster than the GDP growth rate during the same period, which is also conducive to stabilizing consumption capacity.

Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of Everbright Bank, told Securities Daily reporters that thanks to the improvement of residents' employment and income, as well as the continuous recovery of consumer confidence, residents' willingness to consume has been enhanced. The implementation of a series of policies and measures to promote consumption, such as stabilizing the real estate market and optimizing supply, in various regions is conducive to further enhancing the momentum of consumption growth and consolidating the foundation for achieving the annual economic goals.

New economic momentum and vitality are highlighted

High quality development is the driving force for stable economic growth, and many indicators related to development quality highlight new economic momentum and vitality. In May, the added value of high-tech manufacturing industries above designated size in China increased by 10% year-on-year, 4.4 percentage points faster than all industries above designated size. In the first five months, investment in equipment and tools procurement increased by 17.5% year-on-year, and investment in manufacturing technology transformation increased by 10% year-on-year.

Regarding this, Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, told Securities Daily reporters that since the beginning of this year, manufacturing investment has remained high and continues to lead the three major investment sectors. Behind this is the continuous increase in policy support for the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry. In addition, various regions are currently focusing on promoting large-scale equipment updates, and manufacturing investment will receive greater policy tilt this year. In the short term, manufacturing investment is expected to continue its steady upward trend, indicating an improvement in the endogenous growth momentum of China's economy.

According to the latest released data, the implementation effects of policies related to "large-scale equipment updates" and "energy conservation and carbon reduction" have further become apparent.

Data shows that in May, the retail sales of communication equipment, household appliances, and audio-visual equipment above designated size increased by 16.6% and 12.9% respectively year-on-year, with growth rates accelerating by 3.3 percentage points and 8.4 percentage points respectively compared to April. The sales of new energy vehicles have achieved rapid growth. According to data from the China Automobile Dealers Association, the transaction volume of new energy passenger vehicles increased by 38.4% year-on-year in May.

Wen Bin, Chief Economist of China Minsheng Bank, told Securities Daily reporters that it is expected that the economic growth rate will rebound to around 5.5% in the second quarter of this year.