Authors：Yue Lu, Mengyuan Wang, Junjie Hong, Songbo Wu

Abstract：We estimate the policy effect of belt and road initiative (BRI) on China's import. We use highly detailed, product-country level data from China Customs Trade Statistics Database which covers 5364 types of products and 201 economies from 2010 to 2017 to investigate the policy effects and the underlying mechanisms. We find that the BRI has significantly boosted China's imports from countries along the route. The BRI have significant expansion effect on imports of existing products as well as positive effects on imports of new product import and product exit, which means BRI may also contribute to the optimization of product structure and growth in value of China's imports. Moreover, BRI have positive effects on both general trade and processing trade. Mechanism analysis shows that policy coordination, cultural affinity, and maritime transportation connectivity have strong explanatory power on the policy effects of BRI. We also find that the BRI has played a "boosting" role for import boost for new RTA partner as well as non-RTA members along the route. We further examine the impact of BRI on global bilateral trade, and the result shows that BRI has generally promoted bilateral trade among all countries along the route, not limited to origin-China pairs.

Key Words：belt and road initiative (BRI);bilateral trade;import;mechanism analysis